Of course this is different than the “likely voter” formulas, which are quite subjective.

Sorry, not trying to piss on anybody’s parade. I’m still confident Obama will win — for a variety of reasons, but the Status Quo never met an election it didn’t want to steal. So we can’t get complacent!

Yeah, and they’ll also trot out the “polls are meaningless” canard as well. Actually, whatever lead the polls may be indicating for Obama is probably somewhat larger in reality than we are led to believe. Remember, younger first-time voters are often not included in surveys of “likely” voters.

I also agree wholeheartedly with you about her “disgust” factor. Yes, she might light the fires of those who long for the days of the Inquisition, but I think she repels normal people in at least equal numbers. She’s a net loss for McCain, but then, his entire campaign and his entire party fit that description as well.

Bring on the debates!

Brian – I am as anxious to see the poll results after the RNC as you are! Good times…

For all of her obvious faults and shortcomings, Palin is “energizing the base”, which in itself speaks volumes about the intellectual capacities of these people. I’m sure tonight will be a fundie’s wet dream, and I may have to revise my earlier prediction of at least five god references in her speech. I daresay we may even get a “Jesus Christ” thrown in for good measure.

So, if a renewed culture war is the strategy, will it work? Can the republicans distract us enough with the little shit to squeak out another close win? I really doubt it. Obama is no ordinary democrat, and this is no ordinary election (even though we seem to think every election is extraordinary, don’t we?). He’s too smart and has too much spine to let that happen this time. At best, McCain is treading water. If he doesn’t get a significant bump in the polls after this convention like Obama did after his, start chilling the champagne.

Incidentally, a betting outfit in Ireland yesterday offered 20-1 odds that Palin would be dropped from the ticket. Today the odds are now 8-1. Again, I don’t really think its likely to happen, but goddammit it would sure be funny. Just imagine the fundie outrage. It brings a smile to my face just thinking about it.

Fundies insist that abstinence-only sex education is effective.

Bristol Palin received abstinence-only sex education.

Therefore, this must be an immaculate conception.

JESUS CHRIST!!!! Sarah Palin is the grandmother of JESUS CHRIST!

That makes perfect sense. It explains everything too. The media attacking Palin is simply the devil (or god?) making her go through trials and tribulations before assuming command of the World’s Most Powerful Military For Jesus™.

What we can say is that studies show that more pregnancies (and STDs) happen when kids are taught abstinence only education. That is true because it is supported by numerous studies. But Bristol — there is no way to know.

It is a nice tactic for a political pundit on the attack, but I’m just saying that since we hold the superstitious to a higher level of logic, we need to follow the same rule.

McCain’s ship is sinking. It’s possible the sheer might of a million fundie neocons and their $$$ could possibly bail out McCain long enough for him to remain competitive up to Nov 4, but this campaign is an absolute disaster politically!

McCain’s best choice for the media coverage he desperately needed is backfiring in so many weird and wonderful ways I could have never conceived of. It makes me smile.

I shouldn’t be so surprised. It’s not like there are any neocons out there that are not completely corrupt to the core. I should have known more would come out about Palin to make her more toxic than when she was chosen (when I guessed her benefits might outweigh her drawbacks compared to other candidates). McCain should have too. But grampy isn’t too sharp these days.

However, don’t forget that POW POW POW POW POW POW

…she’s been associated with some of the most outrageously crazy fundies out there, not to mention being part of a secessionist movement for Alaska. So she doesn’t want her state to be part of the U.S., but expects to be VP? WTF??!!

It’s ironic that the “Party of Lincoln”, who saved the union, has fallen so far that they’re now running a secessionist for Vice President.

Bristol Palin received abstinence-only sex education.

Therefore, this must be an immaculate conception.

JESUS CHRIST!!!! Sarah Palin is the grandmother of JESUS CHRIST!

While I agree that debates should focus on the issues and not on personal attacks, Palin’s religio-political record has a direct bearing on the issue of teen pregnancy. And, as I’ve pointed out above, she’s been associated with some of the most outrageously crazy fundies out there, not to mention being part of a secessionist movement for Alaska. So she doesn’t want her state to be part of the U.S., but expects to be VP? WTF??!!

So, that’s the spin – we’re going to hear all about how evil, base, and sexist all us libs are to this poor little purty woman and her happy, wholesome family.